[國際]烏克蘭衝突影響全球糧食，飼料等行業

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原文：

Ukrainian conflict influences global grain, feed industries  Mar 12, 2014By Jackie Roembke

In recent weeks, all eyes have been on Ukraine. Aside from the obvious concerns about world peace and conflict avoidance, the grain and feed industries have been watching closely with their own, more business-minded motivations. Namely, the implications conflict in the region would have on the grain trade, the cost of human, and, in turn, the cost of livestock feed the world over.

According to U.S. Grains Council (USGC), Ukraine reported a record 2013-14 corn harvest of 30.9 million metric tons (MT) – making it the No. 3 top corn producing nation and 4th largest corn exporter; it is also the 5th largest wheat exporter in the world. USDA projections suggest that total 2014 Ukrainian exports will reach 18.5 million MT (728 million bushels), leaving approximately 3.5 million MT (138 million bushels) remaining for exports between now and June.

To date, the ports of Crimea remain open; however, according to USGC’s Cary Sifferath, regional director for the Middle East and Africa, “shipments are becoming increasingly difficult.”

A Feed International source based in Russia suggests the conflict has already hurt the logistic routes, and the producers from the mainland Ukraine are losing the possibility to supply grain via the ports of Crimea.

“If the region becomes part of Russia, or becomes an independent state, then the logistic routes will be changed – maybe from that moment they will go through Odessa ports – but it will be definitely more expensive for grain producers and thus may affect the final prices on the contracts,” he says.

FI’s source says that, should separatist tensions split the region into Eastern and Western parts, two regions with differing political intensions with “ruin the joint infrastructure.” For example, “agricultural holdings with assets on both sides will suffer extremely heavy losses.”

“Ukraine as the region not only will fail to take the position of the second in the world largest corn exporters, but also will lose the largest part of grain production capacities,” he says.

Commodity market reaction
While there have not been signs of serious trade disruption, the commodity market has reacted accordingly.

Farmers fearing a devaluing currency and questionable credit are holding their grain to hedge against the “the uncertainty caused by growing tensions in the region.” Wheat futures, for example, dropped as Ukranians began hoarding grain to hedge against a weakening market. Meanwhile, Ukrainian currency has fallen to record lows against the U.S. dollar.

“Ukrainian farmers are beginning to hold onto their grain as a way to hedge against a declining local currency,” says Gina Tumbarello, manager of International Trade, American Feed Industry Association, noting that escalating corn and wheat prices in the region rose higher to due to the conflict. “We are hearing that Egypt was told that their shipments of corn from the Ukraine will be delayed two to three weeks. This should be manageable. The real problem would be if we start seeing defaults on such contracts.”

Coming off good crop year, key exporting countries see the potential marketing opportunities (namely additional U.S. exports to North Africa, the Middle East and China), but the associations warn against the potential issues if the Crimea situation escalates.

In addition, the global supply of corn and wheat may be impacted if Ukrainian farmers aren’t able to get financing to start planting in the next 30 to 40 days for the next crop season.

“The economic instability will affect Ukrainian farmers looking to plant this year’s crop,” says USGC’s president and CEO Tom Sleight. “Ukraine is in a tough spot financially, and planting season is just around the corner.”

With tight corn and wheat stocks, the international feed industry is concerned about how the conflict will play out in the weeks and months ahead and what it will do to grain prices. When a key agricultural player such as Ukraine is affected by geopolitical strife, it reminds us of how interconnected our interests and businesses are with the global market.

As the Russian Parliament prepares to organize a vote on Crimea’s annexation and sanctions are set in place, the industry – and the world – continues to watch and wait.
機器人翻譯：

2014年3月12日

在最近幾個星期，所有的目光一直在烏克蘭。除了世界和平和避免衝突的明顯關注，糧食和飼料工業已密切關注自己，更具有商業頭腦的動機。也就是說，在該地區的影響衝突將對糧食貿易，人力的成本，並且，反過來，家畜的飼料成本在世界各地。

據美國穀物理事會（USGC），烏克蘭報告了創紀錄的2013-14年度玉米收穫30.9萬公噸（MT） -使得它的編號 3最大的玉米生產國和第四大玉米出口國，也是世界第五大小麥出口國。美國農業部的預測顯示，共有2014烏克蘭出口量將達到1850萬噸（728億蒲式耳），留下約3.5萬公噸（138億蒲式耳），其餘為從現在到6月份出口。

迄今為止，克里米亞的端口保持開放，但是，根據USGC的卡里Sifferath，中東和非洲地區主管，“出貨量越來越難。”

一進國際基礎，在俄羅斯源暗示的衝突已經傷害了物流路線，以及來自內地烏克蘭生產者正在失去通過克里米亞港口供應糧食的可能性。

“如果該地區成為俄羅斯的一部分，或者成為一個獨立的國家，那麼物流路線將被改變 - 也許從那個時候起，他們將通過敖德薩港口 - 但它肯定是對種糧農民更加昂貴，從而可能影響到最終的在合同的價格，“他說。

金融中介機構的消息說，應該分裂的緊張與不同的政治內涵與分裂地區成為東部和西部地區，兩區“毀了聯合的基礎設施。”舉個例子，“增持農業與雙方的資產將遭受極為慘重的損失。”

“烏克蘭作為該地區不僅將無法參加在世界第二的位置，大玉米出口國，同時也將失去糧食生產能力最大的一部分，”他說。

商品市場反應
雖然再也沒有出現過嚴重的貿易混亂的跡象，大宗商品市場反應相應。

農民由於擔心貨幣貶值和可疑的信用都拿著他們的糧食，以對沖“引發的不斷增長的地區緊張局勢的不確定性。”小麥期貨為例，下降為烏克蘭人開始囤積糧食，以對沖疲軟的市場。與此同時，烏克蘭貨幣已跌至兌美元匯率屢創新低。

“烏克蘭農民已經開始守住自己的糧食，以此來對沖下降的當地貨幣，說：”吉娜Tumbarello，國際貿易，美國飼料工業協會的經理，並指出，不斷升級的玉米和小麥的價格在該地區上升到較高的原因衝突。“我們聽到埃及被告知，玉米它們來自烏克蘭的出貨量將推遲兩至三個星期。這應該是可控的。真正的問題是，如果我們開始看到在此類合同違約。“

度過了好收成的一年，主要出口國看到了潛在的市場機會（即更多的美國出口到北非，中東和中國），但協會警惕潛在的問題，如果克里米亞局勢升級。

此外，玉米和小麥的全球供應可能會受到影響，如果烏克蘭農民無法獲得融資，開始種植，在未來30〜40天為下榨季。

“經濟不穩會影響烏克蘭農民尋找種植今年的收成，”USGC總裁兼首席執行官湯姆·斯萊特說。“烏克蘭是一個艱難的斑點財政和種植季節是指日可待。”

緊隨著玉米和小麥庫存，國際飼料行業關注的是，衝突將如何發揮出在今後幾週和幾個月，什麼它會做糧食價格。當一個重點農業球員如烏克蘭是受地緣政治衝突，它提醒我們的利益和企業如何相互連接的是與全球市場我們。

由於俄羅斯議會準備舉辦克里米亞的吞併和制裁到位，在行業中樹立了票 - 以及世界 - 繼續觀望和等待。

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