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Consumer Trends, Animal Protein Exports, and Biofuels Key Issues in 2008
NEW YORK, Dec. 21 /PRNewswire/ -- Changes in consumer trends, country
of origin labeling and developments in biofuels are some of the issues
addressed in Rabobank's 2008 North American Food & Agribusiness Outlook.
The Outlook is produced annually by the Food and Agribusiness Research
team (FAR) team, which provides information and analysis covering all of
the major sectors throughout the food chain. The Americas-based FAR team is
part of Rabobank's global FAR group, comprised of 80 research analysts
located around the world, who conduct research on subjects of strategic
interest to companies and customers within the food, agribusiness and
agriculture sectors.
"The agribusiness environment is constantly evolving, reflecting
ongoing changes in overall economic and business cycles, consumer
preferences, demographic shifts, new product technologies, energy sources,
as well as regulatory issues," said Debbie Perkins, Rabobank's Head of Food
and Agribusiness Research in North America. "As a result, farmers, input
suppliers, food companies and retailers are constantly being forced to
rethink their business models."
In the Outlook, Rabobank's FAR team takes an in-depth look at issues
that will affect the global agricultural industry in the coming year. Below
are highlights of three key issues addressed in this year's Outlook:
Consumer Trends, Animal Protein Exports, and Biofuels.
Consumer Trends
The main consumer trends affecting food purchases are health concerns,
and increased desire for premium products and for a greater variety of
products. With the increased media attention on obesity and associated
health problems, consumers are trying to eat healthier foods, placing an
increased focus on items such as fruits, vegetables and whole grains.
Additionally, as household disposable income increases and free time
diminishes, consumers have an increased desire for better quality and more
convenient products that command higher prices. For example, according to
Rabobank's Outlook, one of the results of this trend is the increase in
sales of specialty items such as fresh-cut fruits and vegetables. Between
1997 and 2006, fresh-cut produce sales increased by nearly 170 percent and
reached an estimated $13.4 billion in sales.
"Food retailers are expected to see continued growth of many gourmet
and specialty items, even if inflation continues," said FAR Vice President
Stephen Rannekleiv. "Consumers can be expected to continue to trade down
for items of lower importance and continue to trade up for products that
they value. Inflation or even a slowing of the economy is more likely to
affect mid-tier products than specialty items."
Animal Protein Exports
The United States meat (beef, pork and poultry) industry is becoming
increasing reliant on international consumers. For example, in light of
record pork supplies, the performance of U.S. pork exports will remain
under the spotlight in 2008. Specifically, China has been touted as the
next big opportunity for U.S. pork exports and is likely to become
especially important given the recent decline in exports to Mexico,
traditionally one of the most important markets for U.S. pork.
While the Chinese government has implemented myriad measures to
stimulate domestic production, prices are expected to remain historically
high for the next 12 months, because the Chinese pork inventory is barely
keeping up with current demand, while demand continues to increase. and
demand too strong. Additionally, while a devalued dollar will assist U.S.
pork exporters in China and other export markets, competition is also
expected to accelerate. U.S. poultry leg quarters are a very price
competitive protein source in the Chinese market, and two other pork
producing countries, Argentina and Brazil, have recently signed agreements
allowing them to export to China.
"Future export performance will be influenced by: U.S. dollar
movements; ongoing market access constraints and trade reform; competition
from other meat exporters; cost competitiveness; and the threat of
unforeseen events, such as disease," said FAR Executive Director Fiona
Boal. "Despite the fact that many, if not all, of these factors are outside
of the control of individual industry participants, the U.S. meat industry
should not lose sight of the fact that the benefits of exporting and
competing on the world stage far outweigh the risks."
Developments in Biofuels
Within the United States, feed continues to account for most of the
demand in grains and oilseeds but the most important driver of growth,
particularly for corn, continues to be the biofuel sector.
In 2007, the enthusiastic attitude of the market toward ethanol and
corn were tempered by caution. Questions arose over issues such as whether
the United States was approaching an ethanol surplus, and whether levels of
transportation and infrastructure were capable of servicing the ethanol
segment.
"After a strong performance in the 2007/2008 calendar year, corn
acreage in the United States is likely to dip slightly, as some growers
take advantage of higher soybean prices, and respond cautiously to a
re-adjustment of the ethanol market structure," said FAR Vice President
Michael Whitehead. "However, as the ethanol market in the United States
becomes more efficient, and as U.S. government support for biofuels
solidifies, a return to strong corn acreage and good prices seem likely."
The premier bank to the global food and agriculture industry, Rabobank
([url]http://www.Rabobank.com[/url]) is a global financial services leader providing
institutional and retail banking and agricultural finance solutions in key
markets around the world. From its century-old roots in the Netherlands,
Rabobank has grown into one of the 25 largest banks worldwide, with over
$800 billion in total assets and operations in over 35 countries. Rabobank
is the only private bank in the world with a triple A credit rating from
both Standard & Poor's and Moody's, and is ranked among the world's safest
banks. In the Americas, Rabobank is a leading financial partner to the
entire American food and agribusiness industry and is a specialist in
sophisticated, customer-driven solutions in the Global Financial Markets
and Corporate Finance arenas. Rabobank also provides retail and commercial
banking services in California; leasing; and real estate lending, operating
loans, input financing and crop insurance to American agricultural
producers, input suppliers and agricultural manufacturers.
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