美國 2014 玉米，大豆，小麥出口預測增加

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玉米，大豆，小麥出口預測增加
興趣見於出口預測
發布日期： 2014年2月10日
美國農業部的月度世界農產品供求預測（WASDE）的報告  是2月10日發布了與市場參與者特別渴望看到四個突起。這些措施包括2013-14市場年度美國出口玉米和大豆的預測，2014年南美玉米和大豆作物的大小的投影。

“在出口預測之權益由出口銷售的快速增長，今年至今產生的，尤其是大豆，說：” 伊利諾伊大學  農業經濟學家達雷爾好。“通過前23週市場年度大豆出口量已經達到出口整年的美國農業部一月份的預測的81％。”

截至1月30日出口的承諾（出貨量，加上優秀的銷售），佔該月預測的106％的。與上年期末庫​​存預計已經在一個非常緊湊的1.5億蒲式耳，市場參與者希望看到美國農業部如何期望看到出口，期末庫存和價格重歸於好。對於玉米，經過前23週市場年度的出口已經達到了美國農業部的預測一月的42％。導出承諾截至1月30日，但是，按當時預測的91％。

“雖然今年期末庫存的玉米就足夠了，增加出口預測預計將導致連續第三個月對這些股票的一個較小的投影，並為舊作玉米價格提供支撐，”好表示。

據好，在南美產量預報的權益，其中包括過度降雨和洪水在阿根廷部分地區及過多的熱量和乾燥在巴西南部的部分地區晚季天氣問題生成。記錄大大豆作物，這將有助於在2013-14市場年度的最後半緩解胸悶美國供應已預計這兩個國家。巴西作物的預計規模較上月增加，以及上年期末庫​​存的預測增加了兩個國家。較小的生產預測本月可能會導致股市的一個或兩個國家低的預測。玉米產量在這兩個國家預計將低於去年，尤其是在巴西，但大到足以維持庫存充足水平。阿根廷作物的投影尺寸上個月減少，與一年前同期期末庫存的預測減少兩國。那麼即使較小的作物將指向進一步提的那些股票。

大豆預測
好的說，對於大豆，美國農業部實際上增加了市場年度美國出口的預測15億蒲式耳，合共1.51十億蒲式耳。那會比2010-11年度的創紀錄的出口稍大。

“投影意味著至少有70萬蒲式耳優秀的出口銷售將被取消或滾入2014-15市場年度，”說好。“出人意料的，為市場年度期末庫存的預測維持在1.5億蒲式耳。進口投影增加了500萬蒲式耳，和其它用量的投影減少了1000萬蒲式耳，這使該投影更符合非常小的殘留使用前兩年，“他說。

在產量預測減少了18.5萬蒲式耳阿根廷和增加37億蒲式耳的巴西。年期末庫存的預測是為阿根廷略有增加的基礎上，規模較小的國內消費和出口以及較小的個股在今年年初的預期。巴西出口預計增加了3700萬蒲式耳，而中國的進口預測不變。世界期末庫存的預測略有增加。

“大豆的2013-14市場年度平均農場價格預計將在一系列11.95美元至13.45比一月份預測高出20美分，”好的說。“在最初的四個月銷售年度收到的加權平均價格為12.88美元。”

玉米，小麥預測
對於玉米，市場年度美國出口的預測增加150萬蒲式耳至1.6十億蒲式耳，與上年期末庫​​存減少類似數額的投影。說好，要達到預計的水平，出口將需要平均3390萬每週蒲式耳在過去29週的一年。平均迄今為止一直僅為26.5萬美元一周。阿根廷作物的投影減少了3950萬蒲式耳，但與一年前同期期末庫存的預測是由於期初庫存較大的估計和一個較小的出口預計增加2000萬蒲式耳。玉米市場年度美國平均農場價格預計在一定範圍內4.20美元，至4.80元，比一月份預測高出10美分。在首四個月銷售年度收到的加權平均價格為4.69美元。

在小麥方面，美國市場年度出口預測增加5000萬蒲式耳，至總計1.175十億蒲式耳。要達到這個水平，出口將需要在剩下的16週年來平均每週2140萬蒲式耳，比一般的步伐日期略顯不足。

“綜合起來，新的預測是負的大豆價格，這表明近期的漲勢已經停滯在同一級別的反彈行情月，”良好的說。“相比之下，新的預測應為舊作玉米價格和小麥價格適中的支持，這表明最近的進展將舉行。”

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原文：

Interest seen in export projections
Release Date: 2014年2月10日
The USDA's monthly report of World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) was released February 10 with market participants particularly eager to see four projections.  These include the projections of 2013-14 marketing year U.S. exports of corn and soybeans, and the projection of the size of 2014 South American corn and soybean crops.

"The interest in the export projections was generated by the rapid pace of export sales so far this year, particularly for soybeans," said University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good. "Through the first 23 weeks of the marketing year, soybean exports had already reached 81 percent of the USDA's January projection of exports for the entire year."

Export commitments (shipments plus outstanding sales) as of Jan. 30 accounted for 106 percent of that January projection. With year-ending stocks already projected at a very tight 150 million bushels, market participants were eager to see how the USDA expected to see exports, ending stocks, and price reconciled. For corn, exports through the first 23 weeks of the marketing year had reached 42 percent of the USDA's January projection. Export commitments as of Jan. 30, however, stood at 91 percent of that projection.

"While year-ending stocks of corn will be ample, an increase in the export projection was expected to result in the third consecutive month of a smaller projection for those stocks and provide support for old-crop corn prices," Good said.

According to Good, the interest in the South American production forecasts was generated by late-season weather issues that included excessive precipitation and flooding in parts of Argentina and excessive heat and dryness in parts of southern Brazil. Record-large soybean crops that would help alleviate the tightness in U.S. supplies during the last half of the 2013-14 marketing year have been expected for both countries. The projected size of the Brazilian crop was increased last month, and the projection of year-ending stocks was increased for both countries. Smaller production projections this month could result in lower projections of stocks for one or both countries. Corn production in both countries is expected to be less than that of last year, particularly in Brazil, but large enough to maintain an ample level of stocks. The projected size of the Argentine crop was reduced last month and the projection of year-ending stocks was reduced for both countries. Even smaller crops then would point to a further drawdown in those stocks.

Soybean projections
Good said that, for soybeans, the USDA actually increased the projection of marketing-year U.S. exports by 15 million bushels, to a total of 1.51 billion bushels. That would be slightly larger than the record exports of 2010-11.

"The projection implies that at least 70 million bushels of outstanding export sales will be canceled or rolled into the 2014-15 marketing year," Good said. "Somewhat surprisingly, the projection of marketing year-ending stocks remained at 150 million bushels. The projection of imports was increased by 5 million bushels, and the projection of residual use was reduced by 10 million bushels, which brings that projection more in line with the very small residual use of the previous two years," he said.

The production forecast was reduced by 18.5 million bushels for Argentina and increased by 37 million bushels for Brazil. The projection of year-ending stocks was increased slightly for Argentina, based on expectations of smaller domestic consumption and exports and smaller stocks at the start of the year. The Brazilian export projection was increased by 37 million bushels, and the Chinese import projection was unchanged. The projection of world-ending stocks was increased slightly.

"The 2013-14 marketing-year average farm price of soybeans is expected to be in a range of $11.95 to $13.45, 20 cents higher than the January projection," Good said. "The unweighted average price received during the first four months of the marketing year was $12.88."

Corn, wheat projections
For corn, the projection of marketing-year U.S. exports was increased by 150 million bushels to 1.6 billion bushels, with the projection of year-ending stocks reduced by a similar amount. Good said that to reach the projected level, exports will need to average 33.9 million bushels per week during the last 29 weeks of the year. The average to date has been only 26.5 million per week. The projection of the Argentine crop was reduced by 39.5 million bushels, but the projection of year-ending stocks was increased by 20 million bushels due to a larger estimate of beginning stocks and a smaller export projection. The marketing-year average U.S. farm price of corn is projected in a range of $4.20 to $4.80, 10 cents higher than the January projection. The unweighted average price received during the first four months of the marketing year was $4.69.

For wheat, the projection of U.S. marketing year exports was increased by 50 million bushels to a total of 1.175 billion bushels. To reach that level, exports will need to average 21.4 million bushels per week during the remaining 16 weeks of the year, slightly less than the average pace to date.

"Taken together, the new projections are negative for soybean prices, suggesting that the recent rally has stalled at the same level as the December rally," Good said. "In contrast, the new projections should provide modest support for old-crop corn prices and for wheat prices, suggesting that the recent advances will hold."


文章出處： http://www.wattagnet.com/Corn,_soybean,_wheat_export_projections_increased.html